A maverick’s mission

by helencahill1

Boris Johnson must remain an outsider on immigration if he is committed to Britain’s prosperity and wants to cultivate his leadership credentials  

Nonconformity defines Boris Johnson’s public image and wins him much admiration. Now he risks sacrificing this valuable asset to tailor himself for the Tory top job. Fellow Conservatives are ransoming the leadership, pressurising him to adopt tougher rhetoric on immigration. Such a move would surely dismay voters who value his tenacity, an attribute so vital for defending our open economy.

Mr Johnson’s relatively moderate attitude towards migrants is increasingly singular in Britain’s political elite. All the major parties compete in Ukip’s shadow to appear toughest on incomers, especially those from new EU countries. Theresa May, another potential contestant in any future Tory leadership tussle, fears immigration pushes up property prices – something Mr Johnson calls illogical – and backs David Cameron’s aim to supress net migration to the tens of thousands. Even Nick Clegg, whose party proposed the amnesty for illegal immigrants that Mr Johnson supports, called for stricter controls last week, in a bid to conform. Most radically, Mr Johnson criticised Mr Cameron’s ambitious immigration target, dismissing it as nonsensical.

Although potentially isolating, such censure is not misplaced. Openness, approached with care, is fundamental for thriving in a globalised economy.  Free flows of labour are crucial for businesses; we risk deterring investment if we restrict foreign personnel.

We also need young, capable workers to support the weight of an ageing population. Migrants themselves are net contributors to the public purse – a study by the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration found those from new EU member states pay in through taxes 30 per cent more that they cost our public services. As they grow older, many do return home.

Seemingly swelling numbers are certainly disquieting – the Office for National Statistics projected that our population could reach 81.5 million by 2060 using 2010’s figures with net migration at 200,000 a year. The numbers regarding our yearly cap of 21,500 skilled migrants are just as unsettling, however. Mr Cameron’s government imposed the restriction to bring net migration under 100,000. A paper published last week by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research modelled such a reduction’s effect. Our overall gross domestic product would be reduced by 11 per cent, GDP per head by 2.7 per cent. The quota depresses the working age population most, with a nominal effect on the amount of older people. To curtail the public services problem resulting from the demographic change, effective labour income tax would have to be raised.

Tasked with securing the capital’s success, the maverick mayor of London appreciates immigration’s importance. He rightly calls for more flexibility, contesting that foreign talent might even encourage our home crop’s competitiveness. On property, he argues excluding newcomers and investors would trigger an equity slump for everyone.

Mr Johnson’s unique appeal is indispensable. As one of the few weapons the Conservatives have against Ukip, he can afford to defy a few party sceptics. In a poll by Lord Ashcroft last year, almost two thirds of Ukip voters said Mr Johnson was different from most politicians – in a good way.

If he changes his stance on immigration to appease Tory hardliners, he betrays our economic security to become the self-serving politician so many of his proponents hate. He must show strength instead, and withstand the pressures of party politics. Britain’s increasingly sceptical public needs convincing that the political system is not defunct, that it serves their needs instead of the egos of their leaders. He should play the principled maverick, not the greedy one.